Testing the Theory, Blessing or Resource Curse? The Effect of Natural Resources on Political Violence in Africa
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Abstract: Political conflicts in Africa have intensified due to the competition for natural resources by various conflicting parties and their conflict intensification. Previous studies have shown that cell phone coverage plays a significant role in the occurrence of these conflicts. This paper explores the impact of oil reserves and diamond abundance on cell phone coverage in Africa. The authors also investigate how rebels are motivated by these resources to engage in conflicts. The Scobit model (Nagler 1994) is used to analyse the cases of unbalanced conflict, which is found to be more accurate than the Logistic model. The results indicate that diamond abundance is a resource blessing, while oil reserves lead to a resource curse. However, the latter finding needs to be more consistent across robustness checks, suggesting that the effects of different natural resources on African political conflicts remain debatable.
Keywords: resource curse and blessing theory, political violence and natural resources in Africa, Scobit model
DOI: 10.17576/sinergi.0301.2023.04
Article Information: 21 December 2022; Acceptance date: 10 May 2023; Publication Date: 31 July 2023.
Acknowledgement and Declaration: The Authors would like to show their gratitude to SINERGI’s anonymous reviewers and their constructive feedback in improving the quality of the manuscript. The author would like to thank Dr Jan H. Pierskalla and Dr Florian M. Hollenbach for their kind offer of dataset. The authors are also immensely grateful for Prof. Dr Thomas Braeuninger’s comments and guidance on earlier versions of the draft
Abstrak: Konflik politik di Afrika telah meningkat disebabkan oleh persaingan untuk sumber semula jadi oleh pelbagai pihak yang berkonflik dan konflik mereka yang semakin sengit. Kajian terdahulu menunjukkan bahawa liputan telefon bimbit memainkan peranan penting dalam berlakunya konflik ini. Makalah ini meneroka kesan rizab minyak dan limpahan berlian terhadap liputan penggunaan telefon bimbit di Afrika. Para penulis juga mengkaji bagaimana aktor pemberontak didorong oleh sumber ini untuk terlibat dalam konflik. Model Scobit (Nagler 1994) digunakan untuk menganalisis kes konflik tidak seimbang, yang didapati lebih tepat daripada model Logistik. Hasilnya menunjukkan bahawa limpahan berlian adalah berkat sumber, manakala rizab minyak menjadi kutukan sumber yang mempengaruhi dinamika konflik tempatan. Walau bagaimanapun, penemuan terakhir perlu lebih konsisten merentasi aspek lain penyelidikan yang meliputi kekukuhan dapatan kajian, menunjukkan bahawa kesan sumber asli yang berbeza terhadap konflik politik Afrika masih boleh diperdebatkan.
Kata Kunci: teori keberkatan dan kutukan sumber, keganasan politik serta sumber asli di Afrika, model Scobit,
DOI: 10.17576/sinergi.0301.2023.04
Maklumat Artikel: Tarikh penghantaran: 21 Disember 2023; Tarikh penerimaan: 10 Mei 2023; Tarikh Penerbitan: 31 Julai 2023.
Penghargaan dan Pengisytiharan: Para penulis ingin merakamkan rasa terima kasih kepada Perwasit Bebas tanpa nama SINERGI dan maklum balas membina mereka dalam meningkatkan kualiti manuskrip. Penulis ingin mengucapkan terima kasih kepada Dr Jan H. Pierskella dan Dr Florian M. Hollenbach atas bantuan nasihat jenis set data mereka. Penulis juga amat berterima kasih atas komen dan bimbingan Prof. Dr Thomas Braeuninger mengenai versi awal draf makalah ini.
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